Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but each side has possesses something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
