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Beijing has deployed its coast guard into the waters of the Diaoyu islands and military drones past outlying Japan's territory as Beijing ramps up tensions following the Japan's leader's remarks regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol announced that its vessels conducted a “rights enforcement patrol” through the territorial seas of the Senkaku, which are administered by Tokyo but also asserted as territory by China.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation performed surveillance within the maritime jurisdiction of the Diaoyu islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity undertaken by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” the statement said.

Diplomatic Spat

Beijing and Tokyo have consistently clashed around the islands but the recent developments come amid an escalating political dispute after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if China attack the self-governing island of Taiwan it might provoke a armed reaction from Japan.

That sparked an angry response from China, which has signalled it expects a retraction from the Japanese official.

Island's Stance

China claims Taiwan as its sovereign land and intends to annex it under what it describes as “reunification”. It has not ruled out the military option. Taiwan’s government and people overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – preferring to maintain the status quo without formally announcing independence, but vowing to defend themselves if required.

An attack or invasion by Beijing would threaten to spiral into a regional or global conflict, potentially involving the United States and other partner nations including Japan, which has territory just 110km (68 miles) from the island.

Defense Operations

On the island, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had observed three dozen PLA planes, multiple naval vessels and one government vessel, which was likely the maritime patrol, active near the territory over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to multiple UAVs flying between the island and the Japan's territory off its northeastern shoreline, seeming to travel unusually near to the nearby Japanese island. Chinese military transits there are not rare, but infrequent, and Beijing's defense operations in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been low in recent weeks.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said Beijing had been conducting another “combined military exercise” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It noted Taiwan had sent its own aircraft and ships to monitor the situation. Taiwan documents these operations a couple of times a month as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Japan has been experiencing increased strain from China since the Japanese official made her comments, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in the Japanese city prompting a formal protest from Japan by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry stated that any Tokyo's involvement would be doomed to fail.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, Beijing cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “suitable actions”, though it did not elaborate.

Multiple carriers from China said on Saturday that tickets to Japan could be cancelled without penalty.

Adding to the tensions, China’s government on the weekend urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it characterized as an unstable security environment.

Although not an outright prohibition, a dramatic reduction in the population of learners from China could have a negative impact on academic institutions in Japan. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the largest demographic.

Official Commentary

Earlier this weekend, a official press commentary charged the Japanese official with performing a political stunt that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a small-scale encounter; it would probably involve other nations, including the US, and could rapidly escalate to a major confrontation with unimaginable consequences.”

Strategic Positions

The government of Taiwan says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Japanese leaders have previously avoided publicly mentioning Taiwan when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also favoured by Japan's primary defense partner, the US.

However, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the People’s Republic of China is “inevitable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, Beijing has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards Taiwan.